Why Do Traders Lose in Financial Market

If you’ve been trading for a long time, you no doubt have felt that a monstrous, invisible hand sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. It doesn’t seem to matter how many books you buy, how many seminars you attend or how many hours you spend analyzing price charts, you just can’t seem to prevent that invisible hand from depleting your trading account funds.

Which brings us to the question: Why do traders lose? Or maybe we should ask, “How do you stop the Hand?” Whether you are a seasoned professional or just thinking about opening your first trading account, the ability to stop the Hand is proportional to how well you understand and overcome the Five Fatal Flaws of trading. For each fatal flaw represents a finger on the invisible hand that wreaks havoc with your trading account.

Fatal Flaw No. 1 — Lack of Methodology

If you aim to be a consistently successful trader, then you must have a defined trading methodology, which is simply a clear and concise way of looking at markets. Guessing or going by gut instinct won’t work over the long run. If you don’t have a defined trading methodology, then you don’t have a way to know what constitutes a buy or sell signal. Moreover, you can’t even consistently correctly identify the trend.

How to overcome this fatal flaw? Answer: Write down your methodology. Define in writing what your analytical tools are and, more importantly, how you use them. It doesn’t matter whether you use the Wave Principle, Point and Figure charts, Stochastics, RSI or a combination of all of the above. What does matter is that you actually take the effort to define it (i.e., what constitutes a buy, a sell, your trailing stop and instructions on exiting a position). And the best hint I can give you regarding developing a defined trading methodology is this: If you can’t fit it on the back of a business card, it’s probably too complicated.

Fatal Flaw No. 2 — Lack of Discipline

When you have clearly outlined and identified your trading methodology, then you must have the discipline to follow your system. A Lack of Discipline in this regard is the second fatal flaw. If the way you view a price chart or evaluate a potential trade setup is different from how you did it a month ago, then you have either not identified your methodology or you lack the discipline to follow the methodology you have identified. The formula for success is to consistently apply a proven methodology. So the best advice I can give you to overcome a lack of discipline is to define a trading methodology that works best for you and follow it religiously.

Fatal Flaw No. 3 — Unrealistic Expectations

Between you and me, nothing makes me angrier than those commercials that say something like, “…5,000 properly positioned in 8000 Call Option can give you returns of over 40,000…” Advertisements like this are a disservice to the financial industry as a whole and end up costing uneducated trader a lot more than 5,000. In addition, they help to create the third fatal flaw: Unrealistic Expectations.

Yes, it is possible to experience above-average returns trading your own account. However, it’s difficult to do it without taking on above-average risk. So what is a realistic return to shoot for in your first year as a trader — 50%, 100%, 200%? Whoa, let’s rein in those unrealistic expectations. In my opinion, the goal for every trader their first year out should be not to lose money. In other words, shoot for a 0% return your first year. If you can manage that, then in year two, try to beat the Nifty or the Sensex. These goals may not be flashy but they are realistic, and if you can learn to live with them — and achieve them — you will fend off the Hand.

Fatal Flaw No. 4 — Lack of Patience

The fourth finger of the invisible hand that robs your trading account is Lack of Patience. I forget where, but I once read that markets trend only 20% of the time, and, from my experience, I would say that this is an accurate statement. So think about it, the other 80% of the time the markets are not trending in one clear direction.

That may explain why I believe that for any given time frame, there are only two or three really good trading opportunities. For example, if you’re a long-term trader, there are typically only two or three compelling tradable moves in a market during any given year. Similarly, if you are a short-term trader, there are only two or three high-quality trade setups in a given week.

All too often, because trading is inherently exciting (and anything involving money usually is exciting), it’s easy to feel like you’re missing the party if you don’t trade a lot. As a result, you start taking trade setups of lesser and lesser quality and begin to over-trade.

How do you overcome this lack of patience? The advice I have found to be most valuable is to remind yourself that every week, there is another trade-of-the-year. In other words, don’t worry about missing an opportunity today, because there will be another one tomorrow, next week and next month…I promise.

Fatal Flaw No. 5 — Lack of Money Management

The final fatal flaw to overcome as a trader is a Lack of Money Management, and this topic deserves more than just a few paragraphs, because money management encompasses risk/reward analysis, probability of success and failure, protective stops and so much more. Even so, I would like to address the subject of money management with a focus on risk as a function of portfolio size.

Now the big boys (i.e., the professional traders) tend to limit their risk on any given position to 1% – 3% of their portfolio. If we apply this rule to ourselves, then for every  Rs 50,000 we have in our trading account, we can risk only 500 – 1500 on any given trade. Stocks might be a little different, but a 50 stop in Nifty , which is one point, is simply too tight a stop. A more plausible stop might be five points or 10, in which case, depending on what percentage of your total portfolio you want to risk, you would need an account size between 150,000 and 500,000.

Simply put, I believe that many traders begin to trade either under-funded or without sufficient capital in their trading account to trade the markets they choose to trade. And that doesn’t even address the size that they trade (i.e., multiple contracts).

To overcome this fatal flaw, let me expand on the logic from the “aim small, miss small” movie line. If you have a small trading account, then trade small. You can accomplish this by trading fewer contracts, or trading Nifty contracts or even stocks in cash market. Bottom line, on your way to becoming a consistently successful trader, you must realize that one key is longevity. If your risk on any given position is relatively small, then you can weather the rough spots. Conversely, if you risk 25% of your portfolio on each trade, after four consecutive losers, you’re out altogether.

Break the Hand’s Grip

Trading successfully is not easy. It’s hard work…damn hard. And if anyone leads you to believe otherwise, run the other way, and fast. But this hard work can be rewarding, above-average gains are possible and the sense of satisfaction one feels after a few nice trades is absolutely priceless.

To get to that point, though, you must first break the fingers of the Hand that is holding you back and stealing money from your trading account. I can guarantee that if you attend to the five fatal flaws I’ve outlined, you won’t be caught red-handed stealing from your own account.

The Risk-Reward Ratio

Know your Risk: The Risk-Reward Ratio

Risk is a part of trading. Every trade carries a certain level of risk. Every trader must know the amount of risk that is being assumed on each trade. Knowing the amount of risk on each trade is one way to limit it and to protect your trading account. The best way to know your risk is to determine the risk-reward ratio. It is one of the most effective risk management tools used in trading.

The risk-reward ratio is a parameter that helps a trader to determine the level of risk in a trade. It shows how much a trader is risking versus the potential reward (or profit) on a trade. While this may seem simplistic, many traders neglect taking this step and often find that their losses are very large.

How to Determine the Risk-Reward Ratio?

The first step is to determine the amount of risk. This can be determined by the amount of money needed to enter the trade. The cost of the currency multiplied times the number of lots will help the trader to know how much money is actually at risk in the trade. The first number in the ratio is the amount of risk in the trade.

The reward is the gain in the currency price that the trader is hoping to earn from the currency price movement. This gain multiplied times the number of lots traded is the potential reward. The second number in the ratio is the potential reward (or profit) of the trade.

Examples

Here are a few examples of the risk-reward ratio:

·        If the risk is 200 and the reward is 400, then the risk-reward ratio is 200:400 or 1:2.

·        If the risk is 500 and the reward is 1,500, then the risk-reward ratio is 500:1500 or 1:3.

·        If the risk is 1,000 and the reward is 500, then the risk-reward ratio is 1000:500 or 2:1.

What is a Good Risk-Reward Ratio?

The minimum risk-reward ratio for a Forex trade is 1:2. However, a larger ratio is better. An acceptable risk-reward ratio for beginning traders is 1:3. Any number below 1:3 is too risky so the trade should be avoided. Never enter a trade in which the risk-reward ratio is 1:1 or the risk outweighs the reward.

Many experienced trader will only enter trades in which the risk-reward ratio is 1:5 or higher. This requires that the trader wait for a trade with this ratio, but the reward is worth it. A higher risk-reward ratio is a good idea in case the currency does not make the anticipated price movement. However, if the trader uses a lower risk-reward ratio, there is very little room for smaller price movements and the amount of risk will increase.

The risk-reward ratio is an important risk management and trading tool. It is important for beginning traders to take the extra time to perform this task because it can help to minimize risk in every trade. Waiting for the right risk-reward ratio can take a long time. However, the benefits of waiting for a higher risk-reward ratio are worth the effort and patience. You will know your risk and know your potential profit. Most importantly, you will know whether the trade is worthy of your money.

Make Sure You’re Trading, Not Gambling

Trading can be a lot like gambling if you let it be so. Some of the best traders in the world are also great poker players, but there’s a big difference between how you trade and how people gamble.

How can trading be gambling?

What I’m talking about is the average trader out there that makes references to things such as “Well, I’m taking high-risk trades, but I keep my stops really tight.”

Also, “I’m playing with house money.” That’s one I hear all the time and it just grinds my gears every time I hear that because they make these analogies to gambling almost subconsciously; they don’t even realize they’re doing it.

Let’s talk about that “house money” issue. Is it really house money, or is it money that you worked hard to earn? You pay for subscription services; you’ve read lots of books; you’ve subscribed to great trader interview sites. There are lots of tools out there that people can use to grow their knowledge. You’re paying for that.

Then, of course, the school of hard knocks, where you do take losses and drawdowns during your trading development and career.

So, by the time you finally start to see some consistent profitability, are you really playing with house money, or money that you earned? Is that money just play money, or is that money you’re going to pay your bills with, or grow your account with and be able to trade more size down the road.

It’s not really house money when you have a successful morning. That really doesn’t allow you to take higher-risk trades in the afternoon, and I see that phenomenon over and over.

For instance, I see a lot of people say “I make money in the morning, but I lose money in the afternoon.” As I sit and talk with those types of students, I often find that they do have a successful morning, and then their attitude changes. “Well, now I can double up, triple up, and take a lot more risk because it’s all house money.” They don’t treat it like their own.

It’s so important for people to understand that if you’re making money, that is your money and you need to protect it.

I find that the best professional traders, their mentality is not about how much money they can make on the next trade. It’s about protecting their money and thinking about how much money they could lose on the next trade.

So, that’s one key instance right there, and then the whole concept of risk and risk management. What I find happens with a lot of traders is that they say “Well, yes, I’m taking a lot of risky trades and I’m taking a lot of momentum-based trades. I don’t really have a science behind what I’m doing. I just see the markets shooting real fast in one direction or the other and I chase after that. But that’s okay because I’m keeping my stops tight.”

Well then of course what I see is just like a credit card statement for a person who keeps shopping, the credit card bill comes and you’ve got to pay the piper and you owe this big drawdown, this big debt.

Same thing with these traders; no individual trade is blowing them out, but at the end of the month, it’s death by 1000 cuts because you’ve still got to pay your commissions and all those little losses add up to big losses.

What has to happen there is the mindset has to change. Learn that no, it’s not acceptable just because I’m keeping my stops tight to take a bunch of high-risk trades.

The focus really has to be how can I minimize losses from the very beginning, and keeping stops tight may be perfectly fine, but keeping stops tight on higher-probability trades, and not just saying “Well, I know this is really risky and that’s my style, but I’m keeping my stops tight.”

In the end, ask yourself what is that doing to your trading account month over month, and if you’re seeing continued draw downs, you need to have a mind shift and focus on higher-probability set-ups.

And it also seems to me that if you’re guessing on your trades without having any sort of edge, that again pushes your trading into the gambling arena.

It pushes you into the gambling arena, and then you’re clearly not journaling. You probably don’t have a trading plan if you’re flying by the seat of your pants.

Two fundamental tenets that every trader should have: a trading plan and they should journal those trades, especially if they are in the more junior stages of their career, absolutely.