on Tuesday, January 27, 2015



There is an old parable known as “the blind men and the elephant.” In this story, there are four blind men who are asked to determine what an elephant looks like. The first blind man feels the leg of the elephant and says, “The elephant is like a tree because it is large and round like a pillar.” The second man feels the tail and says, “The elephant is like a rope because it is small and coarse.” The third man feels the ear and says, “The elephant is like a fan because it is flat and thin.” The fourth man feels the trunk and says, “The elephant is like a snake because it is long and curves.”

A king comes to the four blind men and says, “all of you are correct.” The king goes on to explain that each one had drastically different descriptions of the elephant because they are all feeling different parts. So, they are all correct. The elephant has all the features described by the four blind men.

This parable is a good analogy describing different types of profitable traders. Many of the arguments that erupt between traders on social media are due to not understanding the others time frames or not understanding the other trader’s position sizing, stop loss level, or expected winning percentage. Also too many cult members of Elliot Wave, Trend Following, Market Profile, Day Traders, and option traders etc. think their way of trading price action is the only way when their way is only one of many paths to profitability. There are as many ways to trade price action to be profitable as there are profitable traders.

The elephant in the room is that profitable traders do a few things in common:
They manage their losses to keep them small regardless of their winning percentage.
They trade position sizes that bring their potential risk of ruin through a string of losses to virtually zero.
They are an expert in their own profitable strategy.
Their emotions are not used in trading decisions.
Their ego does not pick position sizing, entries, or exits.
They go with the flow of what is actually happening not what they want to happen.
They trade a robust methodology.
They do the work required to be successful.
They are comfortable with what they are doing.
Their trading fits their risk tolerance and personality.
Many profitable traders only see the aspects of the markets that make them profitable. Seeing the full dynamics of the markets and all the opportunities to make money is a step toward enlightenment.
on Sunday, January 25, 2015
Technical Analysis of Bpcl:



Buy Bpcl For a Target Of 730.

Technical Analysis of Cairn:



Buy  Cairn For A Target Of 240. Cairn is poised for good up move so one can trade for a target of 240.


DISCLAIMER:

Investing and Trading in any equity,future,gold,silver,forex and crude-oil is risky. My recommendations are technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. The information provided is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. This is my personal view only.


Please consult your adviser or consultant or analysts before investing and/or trading. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken by them. The author won't be liable or responsible for any legal or financial losses made by any.
on Friday, January 23, 2015

Any quick drive through Las Vegas makes it pretty clear who is rolling in the money – the Casinos! Why do gamblers keep going back despite losing most of the time?  Misplaced hope, fantasies about the big win, promising themselves they will walk away when they are up and still winning, and probably the inability to calculate probabilities. These symptoms may sound familiar to new traders who have lost money in the stock market, especially when we were new to trading and had delusions of grandeur about trading their way to prosperity quickly and easily.
In gambling there are really only two sides to choose to be on, either you are a gambler or you are the house. The gamblers have the long term odds stacked against them. The more they gamble, the more the odds are that they will inevitably lose. The casino has stacked the odds on their side over the  long haul. The more the gambler keeps gambling, the more the odds shift in favor of the casino operator. The more they gamble the greater the chance the gambler will leave empty-handed.


Profitable traders operate like casinos, with the odds in their favor over the long term. They have learned to trade with historically, back-tested trading systems that put the odds on their side. Much like casino operators, they risk small amounts of equity per trade (around 1% – 2% of their accounts), so no one trade can hurt them financially and mentally for that matter.


Most unseasoned traders behave like gamblers, with no real advantage. They plunge large bets on stocks so haphazardly that they just have a 50-50 shot like a roulette wheel – red or black. Many times these traders hurt themselves even worse by buying into the market in a downtrend and shorting into a rally,  believing that they can pick the bottom or top. Some new traders would love to have a 50/50 win ratio, many actually to all the wrong things and are no where near a 50% win rate.



New traders often have no concept of risk management and like gamblers they eventual give back all their winnings and then some. Profitable traders do this by not being emotionally invested in any one trading outcome. It shows traders the supreme importance of risk management and a positive expectancy model. Traders must control risk and manage odds in the same fashion that casinos do. Casinos set table limits so as not to expose themselves to the risk of ruin by allowing a gambler to hurt the casino’s bottom line on any one huge bet.



Traders must have the discipline to stick with positive expectancy models and risk management. Casinos do not get upset and change their rules trying to win back money from a gambler who goes on a lucky streak, as they know luck eventually runs out. Traders should never go off their trading plan to try to win back money quickly that they lost . Luck is what gamblers hope for while good traders are trading for a positive expectancy. Successful traders and casino operators consistently play the probabilities and manage risk so should you if you want to win.



Trade the market – not the money involved in your account. Each trade must be based on a proven trading system of entries and exits and not by how much we hope to make. Never let failed trades in the past force you to revenge trade and and do not anticipate a signal. Let the market come to you and take it only when it is hit, utilizing rigid discipline.



Winning traders always stick with their historically proven trading system. Casinos do not close down if gamblers get on a winning streak because they have calculated the odds and play based on those odds. Trading Like a Casino is truly a great book with a great analogy to explain how to win the trading game. The principles the book explains to use for winning in the markets are spot on and are easy to understand when associated with what many readers should be familiar with:casinos and how they take our money.


we can’t beat them, let’s join them, be the casino not the gambler.